[Note] 閱讀全球反恐戰爭、檢視當前俄烏戰爭
回顧原先閱讀的書籍，沒想到居然在現實生活所看到的戰爭、會有一種豁然了解的感覺。
雖然之前已經看過 John Mearsheimer 撰文 "Why the Ukraine crisis is the west's fault"，了解到2014年克里米亞危機的來龍去脈。但仍然對於俄羅斯對於烏克蘭的種種地緣政治、不是那麼了解。當回頭重看已故張錫模老師的著作 "全球反恐戰爭" ，同時回顧2008年俄羅斯入侵喬治亞的戰爭，的確有了更深一層了解。
茲將所讀整理如下。
"俄羅斯是一個外交政策深受地緣政治支配的國家...一如亞歷山大一世所說: 距離是俄羅斯的大不幸"，" 俄羅斯地緣政治第一法則是，一個欠缺相當戰略縱深的俄羅斯，將是一個難以防禦的實體，.......俄羅斯欠缺任何自然屏障來阻礙外來侵略，因而俄羅斯的政策總是謀求在本身與潛在侵略者之間建立緩衝地帶（國家群）。其中，對俄羅斯來說，烏克蘭不僅是一個俄羅斯心理、工業與農業心臟地帶不可分割的一部分，而且是俄羅斯所有緩衝地帶中，最重要的一個....."
"....對居住在緩衝地帶的人們而言，他們對於俄羅斯的情感與態度，既不友好，也不尊敬....產生了俄羅斯地緣政治第二法則：俄羅斯必須在安全與經濟之間二擇一，不可能兩者兼得..."，"....莫斯科認為，俄羅斯應該在西方陣營享有跟英國、德國與法國等二流強權（相對於一流強權美國）同樣地位、待遇與發言權，而且應該是美國所敬重且不可或缺的盟友。然而，美國人並不這麼認為....烏克蘭（柳橙革命, Orange Revolution) 與2005年3月吉爾吉斯的「鬱金香革命」(Tulip Revolution)，在在顯示美國正在領導歐盟陣營對前蘇聯區域展開地緣政治攻勢...都是由親美政權取代親俄政權"。
"烏克蘭的東北部與俄羅斯、白俄羅斯為鄰。如果烏克蘭對俄羅斯存有敵意，或是被與俄羅斯為敵的強權所控制，那麼在軍事地理上，俄羅斯與白俄羅斯將難以防衛"，"...烏克蘭是納粹德國侵入蘇聯的焦點所在。當時德國考慮，有部份來自經濟因素....部份來自軍事因素：德國知道，喪失烏克蘭之後，蘇聯將脆弱到難以繼續維持主要強權的地位，蘇聯將永遠處於守勢"，"一個親西方並且由北約控制的烏克蘭，將對俄羅斯帶來巨大的心理衝擊.....這種心理認知將強化俄羅斯內部的解體趨勢。"
"如果烏克蘭加入北約，俄羅斯將再也不能保障自己的國家安全，也將永遠不在能夠重振為重要的歐洲區域強權。如果俄羅斯在地緣政治上實質支配烏克蘭，連同對於白俄羅斯的影響力，莫斯科可以塑造出斯拉夫三國（俄羅斯、烏克蘭與白俄羅斯）之間的新三角關係，使俄羅斯安全得多。並且可以確保俄羅斯影響歐洲政治....維持其區域強權的地位"，這也意味著，烏克蘭加入北約將會不僅僅使俄羅斯喪失成為歐洲地緣政治強權的地位，進一步，"莫斯科在前蘇聯區域的影響力式微，最終也可能導致俄羅斯聯邦本身的解體"。而這恐怕是任何一個俄羅斯領導階層不願意看到的結果。
只是，沒想到當前的這一切，居然都是過去的反恐戰爭遺留下來的效應。或者說，就像 John Mearsheimer 教授在"大國政治的悲劇"提到的，蘇聯解體後、以美國為單一強權的單極世界已經結束，變成美/中/俄等多個強權爭奪的多極世界（類似一戰前的歐洲），意味著可能更不穩定。但 John Mearsheimer 認為當前的危機、本來是可以避免的。美國最大的對手應該是中國、不是GDP還比德州少的俄羅斯 ─ 川普時代的拉攏俄羅斯、專注對付中國的策略，被打壞了。俄羅斯反而被推向中國一側、將會使美國未來對付中國時更吃力。
而對於台灣而言，這也不會是個好消息。
英文翻譯如下：
"Russia is a country whose foreign policy is deeply dominated by geopolitics...As Alexander I said: Distance is Russia's great misfortune", "The first rule of Russian geopolitics is that a Russia that lacks considerable strategic depth will be a A formidable entity, ….Russia lacks any natural barriers against foreign aggression, so Russian policy always seeks to create buffer zones (groups of states) between itself and potential aggressors. Among them, for Russia, Ukraine is not only an integral part of Russia's psychological, industrial and agricultural heartland, but also the most important of all Russian buffer zones......"
"... For the people living in the buffer zone, their feelings and attitudes towards Russia are neither friendly nor respectful....Gives the second rule of Russian geopolitics: Russia must choose between security and economy, It is impossible to have both...", "...Moscow believes that Russia should enjoy the same status, treatment and voice in the Western camp as the second-rate powers such as Britain, Germany and France (relative to the first-rate power, the United States), and It should be a respected and indispensable ally of the United States. Americans, however, don't see it that way....Ukraine (Orange Revolution) and Kyrgyzstan's "Tulip Revolution" in March 2005, are showing that the US is leading the EU camp against the former Soviet Union Geopolitical offensive...all replaced by pro-American regimes with pro-Russian regimes"
"The northeast of Ukraine is adjacent to Russia and Belarus. If Ukraine is hostile to Russia or is controlled by a power that is hostile to Russia, Russia and Belarus will be militarily difficult to defend", "... Ukraine was the focus of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union. At that time, Germany considered, partly from economic factors...and partly from military factors: Germany knew that after the loss of Ukraine, the Soviet Union would be too weak to continue to maintain its status as a major power, and the Soviet Union would always be on the defensive", " a Ukraine which is pro-Western and controlled by NATO, will have a huge psychological impact on Russia... This kind of psychological cognition will strengthen the disintegration trend within Russia"
"...If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will no longer be able to guarantee its own national security, and will never be able to re-emerge as a significant European regional power. If Russia effectively dominates Ukraine geopolitically, along with influence over Belarus, Moscow can shape a new triangular relationship between the Slavic states (Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus) that will make Russia much safer. And it can ensure Russia's influence in European politics...maintaining its status as a regional power", "Moscow's declining influence in the former Soviet Union countries, would eventually also lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation itself.."
-- Adopted from "The Global War on Terrorism", page 258-262.